Why is Mali/Sahel Conflict happening?
AES Alliance (Mali, BF, Niger) vs JNIM/ISGS Jihadists · Since 2012-01-01
📋What is happening?
The Sahel jihadist insurgency began in northern Mali in 2012 and has spread across Burkina Faso, Niger, and beyond. JNIM (Jamaa Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin, al-Qaeda aligned) and ISGS (Islamic State Greater Sahara) compete for territory. France withdrew its forces (Operation Barkhane) in 2022-2023 and Russia's Wagner Group/Africa Corps replaced them.
👥Who is fighting?
JNIM is al-Qaeda's Sahel affiliate, formed from merger of AQIM, Ansar Dine, and al-Mourabitoun. ISGS/ISWAP competes with JNIM for territory. The AES Alliance (Alliance of Sahel States: Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger) are junta-led governments using Russia's Africa Corps for military support. France left after being expelled by the juntas.
❓Why did it start?
The insurgency exploits: weak governance, ethnic Tuareg/Fulani marginalization, porous borders, competition for scarce land/water resources, and jihadist ideology filling political voids. The Sahel's vast ungoverned spaces make counterinsurgency extremely difficult.
📰What's the latest?
As of April 2026, JNIM controls rural areas across Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. JNIM advanced on Timbuktu in March 2026. The AES Alliance formally left ECOWAS. Civilian casualties from jihadist attacks and military counter-operations continue to mount.
📍Where is it happening?
The Sahel belt: northern Mali (Kidal, Gao, Timbuktu), northern Burkina Faso, western Niger, with spillover into Mauritania, Senegal, coastal West Africa (Benin, Togo, Ghana). Lake Chad Basin is affected by ISWAP.